Are strong technicals enough to bring Bitcoin price to $100K in 2021?

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After scaling as much as a relative excessive of round $53,000 simply over two weeks in the past, it appeared as if Bitcoin (BTC) was properly on its method to reclaiming its former all-time highs. However, the collection of occasions that unfolded over the previous week has seen the world’s largest cryptocurrency by whole market capitalization lose practically 13% of its worth, with a single BTC at the moment buying and selling close to $45,800.

That stated, the aforementioned volatility appears to have left Standard Chartered’s cryptocurrency analysis unit utterly unfazed, with the analysts referring to Bitcoin’s most up-to-date plunge as being a “false dip” whereas reiterating {that a} year-end goal of $100,000 per BTC remains to be fairly achievable for the flagship cryptocurrency.

The banking behemoth believes that Bitcoin may have hit $100,000 by “late 2021 or early 2022,” a transfer that shall be accompanied by an enormous spike within the worth of Ether (ETH) as properly. In truth, the analysis workforce identified that Ether is “structurally” valued at a year-end worth level between $26,000 and $35,000, nevertheless, to ensure that that to occur, BTC should scale as much as $175,000. 

Contributing elements

To get a greater thought of whether or not a year-end projection of $100,000 per BTC remains to be possible, Cointelegraph reached out to Ben Caselin, head of analysis and technique at cryptocurrency trade AAX. In his view, final Tuesday’s sell-off was a basic “sell the news” transfer, including that he believes that an elaborate “bear trap” could have been at play. Caselin instructed Cointelegraph:

“I do expect $100K is still in play for Bitcoin this year — if anything, $100K would be underwhelming. In fact, if we follow PlanB’s stock-to-flow, we are still moving in the lower band, tracing ‘worst-case-scenario prices,’ which stood at $47K last month, $43K in September, and no less than $135K at the end of the year.”

He added that relating to Bitcoin, there may be extra worth in taking a look at on-chain information quite than worth technicals alone, because it permits customers to achieve a extra high-resolution view of what’s really taking place throughout the community in real-time. 

Similarly, Tommy Schreiner, senior analysis analyst at crypto information supplier TheTIE, instructed Cointelegraph that there’s nonetheless a wholesome likelihood that Bitcoin can attain $100,000 by the shut of 2021:

“$100K seems as ridiculous perhaps as $50K did last year, but there are factors in play that don’t completely out-rule that scenario. The recent pullback was mostly a de-levering of the market, as a large percentage of leveraged open interest got wiped out and effectively reset all the bullish traders who were going YOLO.”

Schreiner additional emphasised that regardless of all of the financial turmoil throughout the globe, the United States Federal Reserve has proven no indicators of stopping the cash printer, one thing he believes to be signal for comparatively riskier belongings akin to cryptocurrencies. 

Furthermore, he highlighted that layer-one options akin to Solana, Terra, Avalanche, Polygon and Fantom have continued to usher in new cash into the worldwide digital asset ecosystem in current months, one thing which will additionally assist spur BTC’s worth. 

“NFTs [nonfungible tokens] are burning a huge amount of Ethereum every day, despite pricing out a lot of retail users. So if $100K seems ridiculous, perhaps look at how far crypto has come in just a year,” Schreiner stated.

Nick Spanos, co-founder of Zap Protocol, believes that El Salvador’s current acceptance of Bitcoin as authorized tender has the digital foreign money properly on its method to hitting the $100,000 mark by the top of the 12 months. “Ether is also looking to hit $10,000 by then,” he stated.

Some doubts for $100,000

Lennix Lai, monetary markets director at cryptocurrency trade OKEx, believes that whereas Bitcoin’s future appears poised for good issues, that doesn’t essentially imply the premier digital foreign money will shut out the 12 months at $100,000. He instructed Cointelegraph:

“I think we would see a short-term correction considering the loom on upcoming tapering from the U.S. Bitcoin is still very sensitive to the global money supply. Yet at the same time, the cryptocurrency is becoming a legitimate alternative asset class and everyone is looking for certain portions of asset allocation.” 

Lai did concede that if within the near-to-mid future even when 1% of the world’s whole wealth had been to movement into Bitcoin, then a worth goal of $100,000 per BTC may fairly simply be attained.

Similarly, for Igneus Terrenus, head of communications at cryptocurrency trade Bybit, essentially the most compelling case for Bitcoin’s worth reaching $100,000 this 12 months stays the approval of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) within the United States, which, in his opinion, will assist open up the BTC market to new contributors, akin to retirement funds and wealth administration merchandise. 

“SEC punted the [BTC ETF] decision from Sept. 8 down to its new date of Nov. 14 — still within the calendar year of 2021. Anecdotal evidence shows that almost all wealth managers are asked by their clients about Bitcoin exposure. An ETF may just be the right vehicle for this to happen,” he instructed Cointelegraph. 

Bitcoin’s technicals look sturdy 

In spite of current volatility, Bitcoin’s fundamentals appear to be fairly sturdy in the meanwhile. In this regard, Charles Edwards, creator of one of many world’s most well-known Bitcoin metrics, Hash Ribbons, lately claimed that so long as the flagship cryptocurrency is ready to hover above its all-important $42,000 resistance zone, it’ll proceed to stay within the inexperienced.

Late final 12 months, Edwards predicted that by the top of 2021, Bitcoin could possibly be taking a look at a worth goal of between $100,000 and $200,000. He stated he can be “shocked” if Bitcoin didn’t hit $50,000 in 2021, a projection that got here true after the foreign money reached its all-time excessive of $63,000 earlier this 12 months.

In Edward’s view, probably the most vital variations between this present rally and former ones is the comparatively low degree of retail curiosity that has been witnessed throughout the board. In truth, to achieve a brand new all-time excessive this 12 months, he believes Bitcoin must spend a substantial period of time above the $50,000 vary. “I think that would reengage more retail interest,” he stated.

Even although $100,000 is probably not within the playing cards for Edwards, he believes the market is slowly however certainly closing in on the value level. However, to ensure that that to occur anytime within the coming three to 4 months, he believes that both renewed retail curiosity must be generated or a major variety of purchases from main S&P 500 corporations like Tesla have to happen.

Looking forward

When in contrast with earlier occasions, the financial results of the 2020 halving have been fairly tame up till now, with Bitcoin having solely skilled a 4x improve in its worth. In comparability, we are able to see that within the years following the 2012 and 2016 halvings, BTC’s worth rose by 55x and 15x, respectively, thereby suggesting {that a} transfer to $100,000 may nonetheless be attainable.

It shall be fascinating to see how the approaching few days play out for the cryptocurrency market at massive, particularly as regulators everywhere in the world proceed to tighten their grips on this still-nascent trade.